My Community
0
  • June 20, 2018, 09:02:23 am
  • Welcome, Guest
Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

collapse
Pages: [1] 2

Author Topic: Episode 19 Spring has sprung  (Read 498 times)

Franky

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 103
    • Dust War Journals
Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« on: April 08, 2018, 07:21:45 pm »

https://dustwarjournals.com/2018/04/08/episode-19-spring-has-sprung/

In this episode, the Vikings discuss a lot of new releases, as well as the recently released 2018 product catalog and a new errata document. Also, we get a status update on the ongoing terrain contest, as well as a follow-up on the Dust Nordic tournament. Finally, we tackle a few listener questions.
Logged
Dust War Journals podcast: https://dustwarjournals.com/

Christoff

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 37
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2018, 06:50:45 pm »

Huge thanks for running through my questions, guys!  I haven't looked at too many tournaments and didn't realize they sometimes are limited to only 1-2 mats.  Our group has run a few of this year's Nordic scenarios and they've caused us to reevaluate strategies a bit (very much a good thing). I particularly like the emphasis on capture points as opposed to the default "search and destroy" missions which most scenarios devolve into. 

Thanks for your insights for in-game strategy, especially estimating the likelihood of success in rolling by opponents. My ability to run quick stat estimates in my head is rather pathetic and I don't wish to slow down the game by reviewing opponents' cards if possible.  That said, I will try to commit some more enemy stats to memory, I suspect this won't hurt my outcomes. I play with a mathematician who frequently schools me, so that might be part of the issue as well. ;) 
Logged
Terrainiac

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 491
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2018, 02:32:39 pm »

Huge thanks for running through my questions, guys!  I haven't looked at too many tournaments and didn't realize they sometimes are limited to only 1-2 mats.  Our group has run a few of this year's Nordic scenarios and they've caused us to reevaluate strategies a bit (very much a good thing). I particularly like the emphasis on capture points as opposed to the default "search and destroy" missions which most scenarios devolve into.
Thanks for sending us interesting questions! Please keep them coming  :)

I'm glad you like our scenarios. We try our best to make them interesting and full of variation. The general idea is that some scenarios reward fast but fragile armies, while others demand some staying power and attrition to succeed.

Thanks for your insights for in-game strategy, especially estimating the likelihood of success in rolling by opponents. My ability to run quick stat estimates in my head is rather pathetic and I don't wish to slow down the game by reviewing opponents' cards if possible.  That said, I will try to commit some more enemy stats to memory, I suspect this won't hurt my outcomes. I play with a mathematician who frequently schools me, so that might be part of the issue as well. ;)
I would say that the ability to calculate odds and averages helps a lot when playing Dust 1947. And like I said in the pod, it can help you see if you rolled around average or not.

A few times during games I've also made notes of rolls for things like GMYBOM and Reactions, because those rolls are often very important and can literally decide if you win or lose a game.

I have some "quick and dirty" ways to calculate stuff, and these are the numbers i toss around in my head during a game:

A) Success on 1 side of the die = 33%
B) Success on 1 side of the die with re-roll = 50% (it's actually more like 55%, but 50% is good enough when calculating quickly)
C) Success on 2 sides = 67%
D) Success on 2 sides with re-roll = 90%

These numbers are then applied in the upcoming situation where I'm trying to make a decision. There are, of course, situations where other numbers and variables are used, but those four numbers covers the vast majority of situations in Dust 1947 pretty well.
Logged

Wiggy

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 11
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2018, 08:07:24 pm »

Great episode, thanks for the tips.

I agree the building an army thinking about a friendly game makes for something not that engaging for either person.  The inclusion of scenarios has made the game for me much more engaging.  Is there any other things that you do in friendly games to make it really engaging?  I know I heard one of you said they play an intentionally "underdog" army.  How do you decide that?

I do love crunching numbers and will run down numbers in my head.  GMYBOM is an important roll.  It is a mechanic that my local group seemed to ignore until recently.  Reactive fire seems to be another one that can swing a game quickly, usually away from me.  Heroes like Greg & Izzy seem really strong with the expert but is it worth dropping a blok bonus for one hero?

The S1 and S2 argument seems alive at least in the fact that a lot of recent tournaments have had those factions winning, USMC, Spetznas, and Lufftwaffe.  Sorry for the spelling.  The matches that you were talking about had only a couple of rounds?  I really want to get into a tournament but I have not been getting those kinds of armies, Red Guard and blok allies.  What are some tips you might give for tournament play?  Why are they so short?

SSU helicopters seems to be a normal thing?  I have not really run many, what is a good ratio of helicopters?  What is the stratagies when using them?  Do you dismount in your enemies territory or do you stay in the helicopter until it dies?
Logged

Corman

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Country: it
  • Posts: 125
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2018, 08:50:59 pm »

I have enjoyed this release as well. Thank you guys!
Logged

Graystoak

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 260
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2018, 10:30:08 pm »

Very enjoyable episode.

I hadn't looked at the 2018 catalogue so thank you so much for bringing it to my attention. Lots of great insights into where the game is heading in there. Really pleased to see multi-weapon vehicle boxes are back, I just hope the price is right!

Good review of the latest FAQ. Those are some big changes that are worth knowing.
Logged

Christoff

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 37
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2018, 11:58:26 pm »

I would say that the ability to calculate odds and averages helps a lot when playing Dust 1947. And like I said in the pod, it can help you see if you rolled around average or not.

A few times during games I've also made notes of rolls for things like GMYBOM and Reactions, because those rolls are often very important and can literally decide if you win or lose a game.

I have some "quick and dirty" ways to calculate stuff, and these are the numbers i toss around in my head during a game:

A) Success on 1 side of the die = 33%
B) Success on 1 side of the die with re-roll = 50% (it's actually more like 55%, but 50% is good enough when calculating quickly)
C) Success on 2 sides = 67%
D) Success on 2 sides with re-roll = 90%

These numbers are then applied in the upcoming situation where I'm trying to make a decision. There are, of course, situations where other numbers and variables are used, but those four numbers covers the vast majority of situations in Dust 1947 pretty well.

Ace!   I've been doing A, C but hadn't considered the reroll odds.  I'll probably write this on the palm of my hand before my next game. ;)
Logged
Terrainiac

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 491
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2018, 09:00:09 am »

To elaborate some more on odds and averages: The "tricky" part is to combine a series of rolls to get "over all" odds or expected results.

Here's a couple of examples of more "quick and dirty" calculations:
1. A unit is trying to Reactive Attack. What are the odds of getting at least 1 Action? What are the odds of getting two Actions?

The odds of getting at least 1 Action is the same as rolling one die with re-roll -> 55%
The odds of getting two Actions is 33% of 33% -> 11%

2. The new Guai-Lo Platoon lets Steel Guards re-roll failed dice for Reactive Attacks. What are their odds of gaining at least one Action? How about two Actions? And now it gets a bit mote mathy...  ;)

The odds of gaining at least 1 Action in this platoon is around (100% - (45% x 45%)) -> 80%
The odds of gaining 2 Actions in this platoon is around 55% of 55% -> 30%

3. If you are shooting at an enemy infantry unit in the open, how many casualties could be expected in a normal Attack? What if you are making a Sustained Attack? And what about if the unit is in Cover instead of in the Open?

In a normal Attack you will Hit 33% of the dice on average. Infantry Saves will cancel 33% of the Hits, so on average 22% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 20% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around four enemy soldiers.

If the enemy unit is in Cover the Saves will cancel 67% of the Hits, so on average 11% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 10% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around two enemy soldiers in Cover.

In a Sustained Attack you will Hit 55% of the dice on average. Infantry Saves will cancel 33% of the Hits, so on average 37% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 40% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around eight enemy soldiers in the Open.

If the enemy unit is in Cover the Saves will cancel 67% of the Hits, so on average 18% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 20% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around four enemy soldiers in Cover.


Sorry for the "math lesson" but these are some very common numbers in Dust 1947, and in my experience a lot of people have difficulties with stuff like this. I sometimes see people cry out because they "rolled 20 dice but only killed 3 of those guys in the building!", when in fact the outcome was just above average...

If any of you find this sort of stuff interesting, just let me know and I can post some more numbers  :)
« Last Edit: April 11, 2018, 10:02:44 am by MaGoff »
Logged

Wiggy

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 11
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2018, 04:42:30 pm »

To elaborate some more on odds and averages: The "tricky" part is to combine a series of rolls to get "over all" odds or expected results.

Here's a couple of examples of more "quick and dirty" calculations:
1. A unit is trying to Reactive Attack. What are the odds of getting at least 1 Action? What are the odds of getting two Actions?

The odds of getting at least 1 Action is the same as rolling one die with re-roll -> 55%
The odds of getting two Actions is 33% of 33% -> 11%

2. The new Guai-Lo Platoon lets Steel Guards re-roll failed dice for Reactive Attacks. What are their odds of gaining at least one Action? How about two Actions? And now it gets a bit mote mathy...  ;)

The odds of gaining at least 1 Action in this platoon is around (100% - (45% x 45%)) -> 80%
The odds of gaining 2 Actions in this platoon is around 55% of 55% -> 30%

3. If you are shooting at an enemy infantry unit in the open, how many casualties could be expected in a normal Attack? What if you are making a Sustained Attack? And what about if the unit is in Cover instead of in the Open?

In a normal Attack you will Hit 33% of the dice on average. Infantry Saves will cancel 33% of the Hits, so on average 22% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 20% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around four enemy soldiers.

If the enemy unit is in Cover the Saves will cancel 67% of the Hits, so on average 11% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 10% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around two enemy soldiers in Cover.

In a Sustained Attack you will Hit 55% of the dice on average. Infantry Saves will cancel 33% of the Hits, so on average 37% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 40% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around eight enemy soldiers in the Open.

If the enemy unit is in Cover the Saves will cancel 67% of the Hits, so on average 18% will "go through". This can be quickly estimated to 20% of the number of dice in the Attack roll, i.e if you roll 20 dice then you can expect to kill around four enemy soldiers in Cover.


Sorry for the "math lesson" but these are some very common numbers in Dust 1947, and in my experience a lot of people have difficulties with stuff like this. I sometimes see people cry out because they "rolled 20 dice but only killed 3 of those guys in the building!", when in fact the outcome was just above average...

If any of you find this sort of stuff interesting, just let me know and I can post some more numbers  :)

Personally I love it but I usually run those numbers in my head without too much difficultly.  I was trying to create a quick damage calculator but with all of the different possible interactions it was getting clunky.  It does work but there are multiple areas to enter numbers because of the different states of cover, height, damage resilience, flame, expert etc.  With the vehicles it was even worse because of the amount of damage each shot could do.  Do you have any recommendations or just abandon the whole thing?  Plus it is not really helpful during a game because it is currently on excel.
Logged

Christoff

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 37
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2018, 05:11:33 pm »

Personally I love it but I usually run those numbers in my head without too much difficultly.

^ The mathematician I spoke of.

I was trying to create a quick damage calculator but with all of the different possible interactions it was getting clunky.  It does work but there are multiple areas to enter numbers because of the different states of cover, height, damage resilience, flame, expert etc.  With the vehicles it was even worse because of the amount of damage each shot could do.  Do you have any recommendations or just abandon the whole thing?  Plus it is not really helpful during a game because it is currently on excel.

I really like this idea.  Magoff, do you think something like this could be condensed onto a single-page "cheat sheet" somehow?
Logged
Terrainiac

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 491
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2018, 12:47:32 pm »

Is there any other things that you do in friendly games to make it really engaging?
Personally, I think that nice terrain and painted models are very important to make it more engaging. In casual games I always play fully painted (unless we are trying out a new unit that was just released). Visually appealing terrain and models simply makes the game more fun!

I do love crunching numbers and will run down numbers in my head.  GMYBOM is an important roll.  It is a mechanic that my local group seemed to ignore until recently.  Reactive fire seems to be another one that can swing a game quickly, usually away from me.  Heroes like Greg & Izzy seem really strong with the expert but is it worth dropping a blok bonus for one hero?
It's a tough call. Greg & Izzy are very very good, but if they are the only thing that breaks the Faction bonus I would probably go for something else, to keep the bonus. However, you can't break the bonus more than once (either you have it or you don't) so if you include Greg & Izzy you might as well include Crazy Jimmy or some other stuff. In that case it might very well be worth it.

The S1 and S2 argument seems alive at least in the fact that a lot of recent tournaments have had those factions winning, USMC, Spetznas, and Lufftwaffe.  Sorry for the spelling.  The matches that you were talking about had only a couple of rounds?  I really want to get into a tournament but I have not been getting those kinds of armies, Red Guard and blok allies.  What are some tips you might give for tournament play?  Why are they so short?
The games we played on Nordic 2018 were limited to 100 minutes, which resulted in that a lot of them never went past the 2nd turn. In hindsight it might have been better to play one or two games less but have more time for each game. That's always a tough decision the organizers have to make.

SSU helicopters seems to be a normal thing?  I have not really run many, what is a good ratio of helicopters?  What is the stratagies when using them?  Do you dismount in your enemies territory or do you stay in the helicopter until it dies?
This is all very subjective, and also dependent on scenario, opposition etc. In my opinion the Assaulter and Carrier are very good for their cost. Most other Aircraft in the game are ok or slightly overcosted. The Assaulter and Carrier are, in my experience, a very common sight in SSU tournament armies.

Currently, in the official tournament document, there's a limit of max 3 Aircraft in total per army. But I've heard several SSU players wish that this limit was removed,

Regarding strategy, it all depends on the situation really. If you have infantry with good firepower and if the enemy doesn't have much Anti-Air then an Assaulter or two can completely dominate the game. If you only have infantry with little firepower, and/or Close combat, or if the enemy has lots of Anit-Air, then it's probably a good idea to dismount in the enemy deployment zone quickly and continue on foot.

If you have some Artillery it can be devastating to put Observers in an Assaulter to give them LoS to the entire battlefield...
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 05:29:13 pm by MaGoff »
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 491
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2018, 05:40:09 pm »

I was trying to create a quick damage calculator but with all of the different possible interactions it was getting clunky.  It does work but there are multiple areas to enter numbers because of the different states of cover, height, damage resilience, flame, expert etc.  With the vehicles it was even worse because of the amount of damage each shot could do.  Do you have any recommendations or just abandon the whole thing?  Plus it is not really helpful during a game because it is currently on excel.

I really like this idea.  Magoff, do you think something like this could be condensed onto a single-page "cheat sheet" somehow?
In total there are a lot of variables in Dust 1947. I don't think there's an easy or quick way to do this if you want to include everything. Maybe someone with programming skills could make an App for it?
Logged

Christoff

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 37
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2018, 07:41:35 pm »

If you have some Artillery it can be devastating to put Observers in an Assaulter to give them LoS to the entire battlefield...

I've tried this a few times, can the observers call in a sustained attack from artillery from aircraft?  I think we ruled that they can't, though I don't remember exactly why.
Logged
Terrainiac

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 491
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2018, 08:19:51 pm »

I've tried this a few times, can the observers call in a sustained attack from artillery from aircraft?  I think we ruled that they can't, though I don't remember exactly why.
It's not clearly stated in the rules, but since Passengers in general can't make Sustained Attacks we've interpreted it that Observers can't either if they are being transported.
Logged

Ravenwing

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Country: dk
  • Posts: 150
Re: Episode 19 Spring has sprung
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2018, 06:24:36 am »

Thanks for another great episode. I was surprised to get a special thanks at the beginning.  :)

Really looking forward to some of the new releases. Especially to see the new weapons option for the Pelican - the tornado version. I cannot make out in the catalogue what the weapons are, but hoping for guns so I can kill SSU helicopters more easily.

It is also great to see Dust Studios including some new options in the kits. So many cool options in one kit or a lot of conversion potential.

Cannot wait!  8)
Logged
Copenhagen Dust player - no grid
Pages: [1] 2
 

* Recent Posts

Re: Live feed from the EU Championship! by Jarhead
[June 17, 2018, 08:27:22 pm]


Re: Live feed from the EU Championship! by Ravenwing
[June 16, 2018, 11:11:55 pm]


Re: Live feed from the EU Championship! by Jarhead
[June 16, 2018, 09:22:59 pm]


Live feed from the EU Championship! by MaGoff
[June 16, 2018, 04:54:57 pm]


Re: Cards based on historical figures by Ravenwing
[June 15, 2018, 04:57:03 pm]

* Calendar

June 2018
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30

No calendar events were found.