My Community
0
  • November 13, 2018, 07:50:26 am
  • Welcome, Guest
Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

collapse
Pages: [1] 2

Author Topic: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers  (Read 805 times)

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« on: July 03, 2018, 10:40:04 am »

Allright! The Dust EU Championship 2018 has come and gone. It was hosted in Warsaw on 16-17 June. Unfortunately I could not attend the event, but I found some time to do a win ratio breakdown in the same way I did last year.

This time the top 5 was (in order): Axis (LW), Axis (NDAK), Allies (USMC), SSU (Spets), SSU (Bloc).

Since this was a notable shift from last year I was very curious to see if the over all win rates has changed between the Blocs.

The event had 54 players and the following numbers are based on a total of 154 individual game reports (77 separate games with one report from each player). I have not counted any games played with or against Mercenaries or Mythos, since I wanted to concentrate on the three big Blocs. I have also not checked specific Sub-factions since that would make it a lot more complicated...

Here we go!

Win rates after removing "Internal Fights"  (Bloc A vs Bloc A, Bloc B vs Bloc B etc):

SSU had a win rate of 58.18% against non-SSU armies
Axis had a win rate of 45.16% against non-Axis armies
Allies had a win rate of 45.95% against non-Allied armies


When breaking up the numbers further to look at each individual opposing Bloc it looks like this:

SSU had a win rating of 57.5% against Axis armies
SSU had a win rating of 60.0% against Allied armies

Axis had a win rating of 42.5% against SSU armies
Axis had a win rating of 50.0% against Allied armies

Allies had a win rating of 40.0% against SSU armies
Allies had a win rating of 50.0% against Axis armies


Those are some very interesting numbers. The biggest difference from last year is that the Allies fared a lot better against the SSU this time. Apart from that, though, the numbers looks surprisingly similar to last year, despite the fact that the top of the field looked a bit different.

The Axis and Allies are still very evenly matched against eachother, but both are still trailng behind the SSU, with around a 40/60 ratio. So, hats off to the top three players who managed to win against the odds!
« Last Edit: July 03, 2018, 02:06:12 pm by MaGoff »
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2018, 09:59:07 am »

Ok, I'm thinking of starting to work on breaking up the numbers to look closer at each type of army. In the event there were Faction armies, Bloc armies and Mixed armies (i.e. armies not qualified for the 10% bonus). There was no Desert Scorpion army, no Special Service Brigade, no PLA and no pure Mercenary army. Other than that I think all types were represented at least once.

This is going to generate a lot of numbers. I see some people liked this thread, but there are no replies and no follow up questions. Are you guys interested in seeing this sort of detailed numbers or am I just wasting my time?
« Last Edit: July 07, 2018, 08:54:28 pm by MaGoff »
Logged

Graystoak

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 286
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2018, 05:11:27 pm »

Iím always interested in this kind of break down. Not because Iím a meta gamer, quite the opposite. Iím interested in maintaining the balance of the game and keeping Ďoff tableí advantages to a minimum.

So yes, please crunch the numbers, at least for my sake 😄
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2018, 08:58:33 pm »

Ok, so Operation Number Crunch is a go!  :)
Logged

Jarhead

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: pt
  • Posts: 368
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2018, 09:18:26 pm »

Yeah, crunch them! Seriously, you amaze me with those numbers time and again. especially as the comparison shows how good they are on the long run. So give it to us!

Cheers
Logged
"Retreat Hell! We just got here!"

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2018, 03:06:20 pm »

The work has started.

I'll be back! *said with voice of Arnold*  ;)
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2018, 01:43:06 pm »

Ok, I've put the entire EU Championship 2018 into Excel and let it work it's magic. Some very interesting numbers has come out and, as always, if you have any questions or would like to know how I did this just let me know.

First, we need to remember that this is only one event and these specific numbers are only valid for this event. The really interesting part comes when such a breakdown has been done for a few more events so we get a larger statistical basis and can compare the numbers.

Second, there are many ways to present these numbers. I will post a few different "rankings" made from different criterias, and finally I will post a sort of combined total that tries to give a fair picture of how strong the different army types were during the EU Championship. When I say "army type" I'm referring to Faction armies, Bloc armies and Mixed armies from each respective Bloc. The first two include the 10% Hero bonus while Mixed armies were not qualified for the bonus.

I'll start with a similar list as before: Which army type did best against the armies from other Blocs?

Rank
Army Type
Win % vs other Blocs
1
USMC
77.78%
2
SSU Bloc
73.33%
3
NDAK
68.75%
4
Spetsnaz
58.33%
5
SSU Mixed/Axis Bloc
50.00%
7
Red Guard
45.83%
8
Luftwaffe
45.00%
9
Allies Bloc
37.50%
10
Allies Mixed
33.33%
11
Axis Mixed
30.00%
12
Blutkreuz
20.00%

As you can see in this ranking, the usual Soldier 1 armies places high, which was probably expected by many people. However, it's intersting to see that SSU Bloc was actually stronger than Spetsnaz in this regard and came in second, just behind the USMC.

It's also worth noting that all types of SSU armies did fairly well, with only the Red Guards being slightly below the 50% mark. At the same time, poor Blutkreuz had a really tough time when facing the other Blocs.

Next up: Inter-Bloc fighting!
Logged

Graystoak

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 286
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2018, 03:24:34 pm »

Itís great to see this.

Iím not that surprised to see Block SSU do so well. Although they are S2 their unis are as cheap as S1, meaning more points to go around. They also have some very tough vehicles which are also very low cost when compared to the vehicles in other Blocks (yes Natasha Iím looking at you)!

I think the SSU Block has the weakest platoon advantages but to my mind the low cost of many of their units more than makes up for this.
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2018, 05:47:24 pm »

Right, so what happens if we look only at fights against other army types but within the same Bloc?

Rank
Army Type
Win % vs Own Bloc
1
USMC/Red Guard
100%
3
Luftwaffe
77.78%
4
Allies Mixed
66.67%
5
Axis Bloc
53.85%
6
Spetsnaz
50.00%
7
NDAK
41.18%
8
Blutkreuz/Axis Mixed
40.00%
10
Allies Bloc
33.33%
11
SSU Bloc
0.00%
N/A
SSU Mixed
N/A

Again the USMC are really strong, and the Red Guard seems to shine when fighting other SSU forces. Surprisingly, the SSU Bloc forces got a serious beating in this category.

Finally, no SSU Mixed force faced any other SSU force, so they do not receive a ranking in this category and it will not be factored in when their over all ranking is set.
Logged

Jarhead

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: pt
  • Posts: 368
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2018, 08:20:10 pm »

VERY interesting. Though aware that they are strong I would have never guessed the Top Spot for USMC, especially sp clearly  :o

keep them numbers comin'!

Cheers
Logged
"Retreat Hell! We just got here!"

Graystoak

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 286
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2018, 10:52:37 pm »

This isnít saying that USMC and Red Guard are necessarily the stringest factions. Itís more highlighting that there is a bigger power discrepancy within the Allies and SSU Blocks. In the case of the USMC this isnít very surprising. Iím a little surprised about the Red Guard as I would have said SSU has the best internal/Block balance. I would be interested to know what was fielded. Steel Legion are obviously potentially very powerful but then the standard Red Guard have some very powerful and inexpensive walkers and an excellent platoon advantage.

What surprises me more is that the NDAK arenít the strongest Axis Faction. But then I guess we have a pretty small sample here. How many Axis players were in the tournament and how many fielded NDAK?

Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2018, 08:59:03 am »

How many Axis players were in the tournament and how many fielded NDAK?
A total of 27 players played Axis armies. The NDAK was the single most played type of army in the entire tournament with a total of 8 players.
Logged

Graystoak

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 286
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2018, 10:24:14 am »

Oh wow that is a lot of NDAK players. And the other Axis Factions?
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #13 on: July 10, 2018, 11:10:23 am »

Oh wow that is a lot of NDAK players. And the other Axis Factions?
I was planning on posting "number of players" later, but I might as well post it now. The plan is to incorporate this ranking into the final total, but I'm not sure yet how to do it in a proper way. More players of course means more accurate numbers and I would like that to be reflected into the final ranking somehow. I'll have to think about that a bit more, and I'll be happy for any suggestions on how to do that.

Anyway, here's what the spread of army types looked like:

Rank
Army Type
# Players
1
NDAK
8
2
Red Guard/Luftwaffe
6
4
SSU Bloc/Axis Mixed
5
6
Axis Bloc/Allies Bloc/Blutkreuz
4
9
Spetsnaz/Allies Mixed
3
11
USMC
2
12
SSU Mixed
1
Logged

MaGoff

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Country: se
  • Posts: 537
    • Dust-Vikings
Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2018, 09:16:47 pm »

The first ranking I posted about the specific army types showed how each type fared against armies from the other Blocs. What if we break that down further and look at each specific opposing Bloc? Which Allies and SSU armies were best at beating the Axis for example? Let take a look:

This is how the Allies and SSU did against the Axis
Rank
Army Type
Win % vs Axis
1
SSU Bloc
72.73%
2
Spetsnaz/SSU Mixed/USMC
66.67%
5
Allies Bloc
50.00%
6
Allies Mixed
37.50%
7
Red Guard
35.29%

This is how the Allies and Axis did against the SSU
Rank
Army Type
Win % vs SSU
1
USMC
100%
2
NDAK
76.92%
3
Axis Bloc
50.00%
4
Luftwaffe/Axis Mixed
33.33%
6
Allies Bloc/Allies Mixed
25.00%
8
Blutkreuz
0.00%

Finally, this is how the SSU and Axis did against the Allies
Rank
Army Type
Win % vs Allies
1
SSU Bloc
75.00%
2
Red Guard
71.43%
3
Blutkreuz
66.67%
4
Luftwaffe
62.50%
5
Axis Bloc
50.00%
6
Spetsnaz/NDAK
33.33%
8
Axis Mixed
25.00%
9
SSU Mixed
0.00%

This is interesting in several ways. Both SSU Bloc and USMC places high in both of their lists. While Spetsnaz, NDAK and Red Guard places high on one list but low on the other.

It's also interesting to see that the same is basically true for Blutkreuz, who places fairly high against the Allies but lost every single game against the SSU (Blutkreuz played 7 games vs SSU during the tournament).

SSU Mixed follows the same pattern of being high on one list but low on the other, but since there was only one SSU Mixed army those numbers are the least 'accurate' of the bunch.

Next up: Games against "Soldier 1 armies" (i.e. games vs Spetsnaz, NDAK, Luftwaffe and USMC).
Logged
Pages: [1] 2
 

* Recent Posts

Re: Luftwaffe & Kampfaffen by Mechaholic
[November 12, 2018, 12:26:14 pm]


Re: Luftwaffe & Kampfaffen by awx
[November 09, 2018, 04:12:04 am]


Re: Luftwaffe & Kampfaffen by Mechaholic
[November 06, 2018, 12:42:26 pm]


Re: Luftwaffe & Kampfaffen by Mechaholic
[November 06, 2018, 12:39:08 pm]


Luftwaffe & Kampfaffen by Mechaholic
[November 06, 2018, 12:18:46 pm]

* Calendar

November 2018
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30

No calendar events were found.