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Author Topic: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers  (Read 703 times)

Graystoak

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 09:15:07 am »

This is great, really interesting results. The USMC currently look like the strongest faction but I see there were only two people playing this faction. Obviously player skill is a factor and it could well be that these two were the strongest players but who can say.

Just looking at the Block armies for a minute we see that both Axis and Allies appear very well matched at 50% vs one another. However the SSU Block is up at around  75% wins vs the other two Blocks.

This would appear consistent with discussions we’ve had in the past and the results of the ‘adjusted AP’ project which showed SSU to have the most AP reductions.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 09:27:56 am by Graystoak »
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 10:26:25 am »

This would appear consistent with discussions we’ve had in the past and the results of the ‘adjusted AP’ project which showed SSU to have the most AP reductions.
I agree, but I think you mean that the SSU had the most AP increases.
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Graystoak

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 10:37:53 am »

Yes, that is what I meant 😄
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2018, 08:03:15 pm »

Ok, so far we've seen how the different types of armies faired against other Blocs and against their own Bloc. But currently in Dust 1947, the Soldier 1 armies seems fairly strong (the top 4 of this tournament were all S1's for example), so what types of armies did best against those S1's? In this category I've counted all games played vs USMC, NDAK, Luftwaffe and Spetsnaz (but as before I've excluded any mirror matches).

Rank
Army Type
Win % vs S1
1
USMC
66.67%
2
Luftwaffe
63.64%
3
SSU Bloc
54.55%
4
Axis Bloc
50.00%
5
Spetsnaz
42.86%
6
Allies Bloc
40.00%
7
Axis Mixed
33.33%
8
Red Guard/NDAK/Allies Mixed
25.00%
11
Blutkreuz
0.00%
N/A
SSU Mixed
N/A

What surprised me most in this list was that NDAK played eight games vs S1 armies, but only managed to win two of them. I was also surprised that all the Bloc armies did somewhat OK vs S1 (Allies Bloc is at 40% but that isn't terrible and I was sort of expecting worse).

SSU Mixed did not play against any S1 force, so they do not receive a ranking in this category and it will not be factored in when their over all ranking is set.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 04:21:05 pm by MaGoff »
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Graystoak

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2018, 09:53:20 pm »

These are some surprising statistics. I would have expected SSU Block to have done a little better and Axis/Allied Block to have done a little worse. Very surprised to see the Spetsnaz looking quite weak compared to their fellow S1’s. Again I do remember we discussed some of the Spetsnaz units actually being a little over costed. Particularly the Assault Squad at 9AP and maybe some of the walkers.

Also quite surprised at how badly the Red Guard did but as you have already said, the NDAK is the big surprise. Is this perhaps down to their lack of vehicles?
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 09:56:25 pm by Graystoak »
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2018, 11:42:32 pm »

Also quite surprised at how badly the Red Guard did but as you have already said, the NDAK is the big surprise. Is this perhaps down to their lack of vehicles?
I don't have the army lists so it's impossible to draw such detailed conclusions. I asked Marek (the organizer of the event) if he could send the army lists to me, but at least for the moment he is too busy with work and with moving to a new apartment.

For future events I hope to be able to take a closer look at army lists and maybe find some common denominators.
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Graystoak

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2018, 10:05:41 am »

I just meant that NDAK as a faction have a very limited selection of vehicles and they are all V3. Obviously they can use Block Vehicles but only to a limited degree.
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2018, 01:22:47 pm »

Ah, I see. Yes, that is a possibillity but the Vehicle situation is similar for USMC, Luftwaffe and Spetsnaz, so I don't think that is the (only) explanation. We'll have to wait and see how a couple of future events turn out before drawing detailed conclusions.
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2018, 02:36:48 pm »

Another way of getting a feel for how strong each army type was during the event is to look at average final placings. Normally, a good player places higher than a less skilled player, but the average gives a hint of how strong a particular army type was as a whole.

The tournament used Strength of Schedule as the first Tiebreaker so the final standings are sort of "evened out" depending on how each player's opponents did in the event (if two players have the same number of wins, a player that had "good" opponents places higher than a player with "bad" opponents).

As usual, the number for average final placing is more accurate with a larger group of players but it can still be interesting to see trends and tendencies. The event had 54 players so in a perfect world each type of army should have an average placing of around 27-28.

Rank
Army Type
Average Placing
1
USMC
4.5
2
Spetsnaz
18.3
3
SSU Bloc
21.4
4
Red Guard
22.5
5
NDAK
22.8
6
Luftwaffe
23.3
7
SSU Mixed
28.0
8
Axis Bloc
28.5
9
Axis Mixed
33.6
10
Allies Mixed
33.7
11
Blutkreuz
37.0
12
Allies Bloc
37.8
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 12:40:36 am by MaGoff »
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Wiggy

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2018, 07:58:10 pm »

Thanks for all the information that you have put on here.  I love this kind of number crunching.  I do hope that we can get a look at some of the army lists.  I am curious about what people bring but I think it could help with understanding these numbers as well.  The Blut vs SSU is low and I wonder if that is due to the lack of AA in the Blut kit and the amazing helicopters that the SSU have access to.
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MaGoff

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Re: Dust EU Championship 2018 - By the Numbers
« Reply #25 on: July 19, 2018, 06:12:16 pm »

Thanks for all the information that you have put on here.  I love this kind of number crunching.  I do hope that we can get a look at some of the army lists.  I am curious about what people bring but I think it could help with understanding these numbers as well.
Your welcome! Obviously, I like this sort of stuff as well  :)

Yes, it would indeed be very interesting to look closer at all the lists to see what similarities and differencies there are.

The Blut vs SSU is low and I wonder if that is due to the lack of AA in the Blut kit and the amazing helicopters that the SSU have access to.
Personally, I think the two things you mention are big parts of the answer. But I also think that several Blutkreuz units need an update (either lower cost or better stats/abilities/platoons).
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